WHAT is p(doom)?
FACT: AI Industry Engineer Average P(doom): 10-20%
P(doom) is a term in AI safety that refers to the probability of catastrophic outcomes (or “doom”) as a result of artificial intelligence.[1][2] The exact outcomes in question differ from one prediction to another, but generally allude to the existential risk from artificial general intelligence.[3]
Originating as an inside joke among AI researchers, the term came to prominence in 2023 following the release of GPT-4, as high-profile figures such as Geoffrey Hinton[4] and Yoshua Bengio[5] began to warn of the risks of AI.[6] In 2022, a survey of AI researchers, which had a 17% response rate, found that the majority believed there is at least a 10% chance that our inability to control AI could cause an existential catastrophe.[7]
FACT: Basic Summary of The AI Industry and Frontier Labs’ Current Position on AI Safety:
1. They openly admit their technology could end all life on earth.
2. They openly admit they do not know (yet) how to control their technology.
3. They openly admit they fundamentally do not understand how their technology works.
4. The vast majority of time and money (+80%) is a ‘race-to-the-bottom’ to make AI stronger but not guaranteed to be safe.
5. They currently lobby to weaken or hinder regulations of the new California State Law: SB 1047
EXAMPLES: P(doom) opinions of AI thought leaders
| Name | P(doom) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Roman Yampolskiy | 99.99%[11][Note 5] | Leading Safe AI and Cybersecurity Scientist |
| Eliezer Yudkowsky | 99%+ [10] | Founder of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute |
| Dan Hendrycks | 80%+ [1][Note 3] | Director of Center for AI Safety |
| Geoffrey Hinton | 50%[6][Note 1] | “Godfather of AI” and formerly at Univ. Toronto, and Google |
| Emmet Shear | 5-50%[6] | Co-founder of Twitch and former interim CEO of OpenAI |
| Paul Christiano | 50%[9] | Head of the US AI Safety Institute |
| Jan Leike | 10-90%[1] | AI alignment researcher at Anthropic, formerly of DeepMind and OpenAI |
| Yoshua Bengio | 20%[3][Note 2] | “Godfather of AI” and scientific director of the Montreal Institute for Learning Algorithms |
| Lina Khan | 15%[6] | Chair of the Federal Trade Commission |
| Dario Amodei | 10-25%[6] | CEO of Anthropic |
| Elon Musk | 10-20%[8] | CEO of X, Tesla, and SpaceX and Wealthiest Person in the World |
| Vitalik Buterin | 10%[1] | Cofounder of Ethereum |
| Casey Newton | 5%[1] | American technology journalist |
| Yann Le Cun | <0.01%[13][Note 6] | Chief AI Scientist at Meta |
| Grady Booch | 0%[1][Note 4] | American software engineer |
| Marc Andreessen | 0%[12] | American businessman and leading venture capitalist |
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The phenomenon of [AI] synthesis, if properly arranged, can become explosive. The danger is intrinsic. For progress there is no cure.”
“It seems probable that once the machine thinking method had started, it would not take long to outstrip our feeble powers… expect the machines to take control.”
“As machines learn they may develop unforeseen strategies at rates that baffle their programmers.”
Unquestionably… an “intelligence explosion”
“Cogito, ergo sum.” (I think, therefore I am.)
